CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-03-15T02:00:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Mar 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate levels with an impulsive M1/Sn flare
observed at 15/0940 UTC observed from Region 2297 (S17W32,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta).  However, the most significant activity occurred
during a sequence of events early on 15 Mar.

It began with a 14 degree long filament eruption, centered near S24W38,
observed lifting off between 15/0045-0200 UTC.  SDO/AIA 193 and 304
imagery observed dimming with a wave moving over the SW quadrant.  At
15/0041 UTC, a C2/Sf flare was observed from Region 2297 which was
followed by a long duration C9/1f flare that started at 15/0115 UTC,
peaked at 15/0213 UTC and ended at 15/0320 UTC.  Associated with the
C9/1f were low-frequency radio emissions to include Type II (745 km/s)
and Type IV signatures observed at 15/0127 UTC.

SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 imagery observed an asymmetric, full-halo CME first
visible at 15/0136 UTC and 15/0206 UTC, respectively.  Initial analysis
of coronagraph imagery and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests a
glancing blow from the western flank of the CME very late on 17 Mar into
18 Mar. As more imagery becomes available, additional analysis will be
performed.

Region 2297 continued to undergo minor penumbral decay this period but
maintained two delta spot areas and a complex magnetic classification. 
The remaining two spotted regions were also in decay.
  
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class
(R3 or greater) flare activity over the next three days (15-17 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced between beginning about 15/0300
UTC following the events of early 15 Mar.  Peak flux was observed at 4
pfu at 15/0940 UTC and levels were still enhanced as of this report.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (15-17 Mar).  There is an
increasing chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at the S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm threshold for the next three days (15-17
Mar) as complex Region 2297 moves into a more geoeffective position.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative on a nominal solar wind regime. 
Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 345 km/s to
end-of-period values near 315 km/s.  IMF total field values ranged
between 1-7 nT.  The Bz component was mostly north to 5 nT through about
14/2030 UTC when a rotation to mostly south was observed with a maximum
southward extent of -4 nT.  The phi angle was steady in a positive
(away) solar sector configuration until 14/2138 UTC when it switched to
a negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced over the next three
days (15-17 Mar) due to the anticipated arrival of the 11 Mar CME on day
one and the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) on day three coupled with possible effects from the 15 Mar CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under a nominal solar wind
regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (15 Mar) due to the anticipated arrival of the 11 Mar CME and on day
three (17 Mar) due to the onset of a negative polarity southern polar CH
HSS coupled with possible effects from the 15 Mar CME.  Quiet to
unsettled field activity is likely on day two (16 Mar).
  
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Mar 16 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 16-Mar 18 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 16-Mar 18 2015

            Mar 16     Mar 17     Mar 18
00-03UT        2          3          4     
03-06UT        2          3          5 (G1)
06-09UT        3          3          4     
09-12UT        2          3          3     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        1          3          3     
18-21UT        2          3          3     
21-00UT        2          4          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day three (18
Mar) due to a combination of CME activity from 15 Mar as well as
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects.

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